Behind the Curtain: America's great political implosion
American politics, reordered and reimagined by a decade of President Trump's rise, fall and resurrection, is imploding in substantial ways.MAGA is splintering between Trump enthusiasts and true "America First" believers.Socialism is rising in popularity and clout. Democratic leaders are flailing.Israel is bleeding support with both parties. Pro-Palestinian politicians are winning elections. AI is dividing both sides of the aisle, with strong pro-worker coalitions forming among Republicans and Democrats. And Trump's unpopularity seems set and locked around 60%.Why it matters: Everything is up for grabs — and wildly uncertain. House and Senate control are coin tosses in the November midterms, the 2028 presidential races are wide open, and both parties are equally despised by the electorate.Zoom in: The populist forces Trump awakened are devouring the establishment, inflamed by a cross-partisan blend of endless war, soaring prices and elite impunity, as Axios' Zachary Basu narrates.On the right, a historic schism over the meaning of "America First" has left Trump's broad 2024 coalition in tatters.Tucker Carlson and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — voices once synonymous with MAGA — both renounced the GOP this week, casting Trump's war with Iran as a betrayal of his own movement.The rupture is spreading through the outsider media universe that helped return Trump to power, with populist podcasters such as Theo Von, Tim Dillon and Candace Owens turning fiercely critical of the administration.On the left, establishment Democrats fear a socialist "Tea Party" has arrived — toppling incumbents, humiliating party leaders and turning safe blue seats into laboratories for a more confrontational politics.Three democratic socialists backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, suddenly a progressive kingmaker, appear headed for Congress after an earthquake in Tuesday's primaries.A Gallup poll last year found Democrats favor socialism over capitalism by 66% to 42% — the widest gap on record — with the divide sharpest among voters under 30, the engine of Mamdani's coalition.Zoom out: A generational collapse in support for Israel is remaking both parties — while surging antisemitism clouds the increasingly toxic debate.The numbers are brutal: Pew Research found 60% of Americans now view Israel unfavorably, including 80% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans under 50.For Democrats, Israel's actions in Gaza bundle together everything young left-wing voters hate about the old party: war, money in politics, gerontocracy and deference to a foreign policy consensus they see as morally bankrupt.For Republicans, the fight over Israel is also a fight over the future — pitting an aging, pro-Israel establishment against a young base that views foreign intervention as the original sin "America First" was meant to cure.Between the lines: AI is emerging as the next great populist accelerant, fusing fears over lost jobs, soaring power bills and the unchecked power of billionaires.The backlash is scrambling party lines: Progressive labor activists, MAGA antitrust hawks and young voters increasingly see AI as a machine for enriching tech titans while making ordinary work more disposable.Harvard's youth poll found 59% of Americans 18 to 29 see AI as a threat to their job prospects, including 66% of young Democrats and 59% of young Republicans.What to watch: Trump is deeply unpopular. But the tectonic shifts transforming the two parties — and the country — make 2026 and 2028 impossible to forecast.Control of the House is a toss-up: GOP redistricting established a narrow moat around their majority, but Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6 percentage points.The Senate map is as favorable as it gets for Republicans, but top election prognosticator Larry Sabato this month moved three races toward Democrats. A 50-50 split is a distinct possibility.The 2028 field, meanwhile, is wide open.The New York Times presidential primary tracker has four potential candidates — Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — clustered within 8 points of each other.Vice President Vance leads Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the GOP side. But Vance serves at the pleasure of a president who likes to keep people guessing. The bottom line: In a new Gallup poll timed to the nation's 250th anniversary, more than three-quarters of Americans said the founders would be disappointed with how the country has turned out.Axios' Zachary Basu and Mike Zapler contributed reporting. 📈 If you're a CEO or on a CEO's team: Ask to join Jim's new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.Go deeper: "The Rattled Generation: A unified theory of this American moment."
