Donald Trump says deal will be ‘great and meaningful, or there will be no deal at all’ in online post – key US politics stories from Monday 25 May at a glanceIran has poured cold water on suggestions that a deal with the US is imminent, pointing to the confusion in US positions and Israeli interference as reasons why an agreement is proving difficult to secure.Speaking at the weekly foreign ministry press briefing, Esmail Baghaei, the spokesperson for Iran’s negotiating team, also said future management of the strait of Hormuz was a matter for Oman and Iran to agree on, and that it was not tolls that were being proposed but “fees for navigational services”. Continue reading...
This will be the most important Deal that any of these Great, but always in Conflict Countries, will ever sign. Nothing in the past, or in the future, will surpass it.
NATO defense spending hits Cold War highs after pressure from Trump and Russia's war in Ukraine, but experts say real military capability still lags.
Scandal-plagued Ken Paxton has won Trump’s backing – can he defeat John Cornyn in a high-stakes primary runoff? Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, takes on four-term incumbent John Cornyn on Tuesday in the ugliest primary election of the year. The winner of the Republican Senate runoff in Texas will contest November’s general election against Democrat James Talarico.Paxton and Cornyn have spent months coveting the most valuable endorsement in Republican politics: Donald Trump. Last week, scandal-plagued Paxton got it, with the US president describing him as “a true Maga warrior”. Continue reading...
The Republican hold on the Senate is more tenuous today than it was before Trump’s score settling irrational endorsement of Paxton.
Senate Republican sources say that President Trump’s agenda for the rest of the year is in serious trouble, including a budget reconciliation package to fund immigration enforcement operations through 2029, after tempers erupted at a meeting between GOP senators and acting Attorney General Todd Blanche last week. GOP senators say that Trump has no chance…
With a U.S.-Iran deal (maybe?) taking shape in coming days, the oil market that follows will look different than what preceded the war.Why it matters: The emerging deal — which would re-open the Strait of Hormuz while nuclear talks proceed — could return large amounts of barrels to the market.It's not a moment too soon as global oil stockpiles, which have somewhat tempered the crisis, are drawn down at record pace.Reality check: Things won't be normal for a long time, and the postwar definition of normal is fluid, too.A few near-term and long-term things to watch...😨 Confidence: In the near term, "It's all about whether vessel owners and crews feel safe transiting the Strait of Hormuz," said oil analyst Ben Cahill of UT-Austin.He notes confusion about whether Iran will imposes some kind of fees, safety, insurance rates and more."It could be a stop-and-start process as risk-averse shippers work through these uncertainties," he tells me via email.🕰️ Timelines: "Following the clearance of any mines, a minimum of two to three months will likely be required to re‑establish steady export operations," the International Energy Agency said in its mid-May oil market report.And Persian Gulf countries need time to resume production that declined after the main export route was cut off.📜 Definitions: What "open" means for the world's most important energy shipping lane is unsettled.Iran may not call it a toll, but Iranian officials are floating new fees on tankers.This could be a boon to Iran even if the fee is relatively small, said Edward Fishman, a former State Department aide now with the Council on Foreign Relations.Fishman — speaking on oil analyst Rory Johnston's essential Oil Ground Up podcast — sees vessels paying tens of billions of dollars per year, even $100 billion."If you look at it from the perspective of market participants, whether it's oil traders or shippers, even if you're paying $2 million a pop for a VLCC [Very Large Crude Carrier], that's $1 a barrel, that's actually not that economically significant," he said."I think that the private sector, if this is the cost of getting ships through the Strait, is going to pay the toll," he said.⚠️ Vibes and market risk: Before the crisis that throttled supplies, there was debate in oil circles about whether markets were blasé about threats to infrastructure or shipping.Even once the current crisis is in the rearview, watch the level of "geopolitical risk premium" — the market's willingness to preemptively price in risk — that elevates prices.It could be higher now, especially with Iran's newly assertive posture in the Strait."There will be a permanent price premium attached to a permanently more risky operating environment," Clayton Seigle, an oil analyst withe Center for Strategic and International Studies, said via email.🚧 Pipeline infrastructure: There are already efforts to at least somewhat ease the Strait's importance by building pipelines to bypass it.The United Arab Emirates said in mid-May that it's speeding construction of a major pipeline that will double its export capacity through the port of Fujairah. CNBC has more.🇺🇸 U.S. oil production: Higher prices are likely to encourage producers to boost their output as they see opportunities from a market that went from soft to tight.Before the war, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected domestic production dipping from 13.6 million barrels per day this year to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027.Its latest outlook, in mid-May, now sees production rising to 14.1 million next year.Publicly listed U.S. shale producers have increased 2026 capital spending plans by $490 million compared to pre-war guidance, the energy research and consulting firm Enverus tells the FT.
Global prices are approaching a tipping point that could trigger inflation, shortages and, over time, recessionIf a US-Iran deal is about to be reached, three months on from the launch of Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, it will not be a day too soon for oil markets, which are approaching a dangerous tipping point.The cost of a barrel of crude on the spot market – for immediate purchase, effectively – has bounced about $100 since Iran predictably responded to the onslaught from the US and Israel by closing the strait of Hormuz. Continue reading...
Republican voters in Texas get their final say Tuesday in a drawn out, vitriolic and expensive primary campaign for a US Senate seat, a race that Democrats are watching closely in hopes that they could flip both houses of Congress in November.