"These are not normal times": Inside Democrats' sweeping 2028 redistricting plans

Source: Axios · Bias: Center Left

Summary

This week's Supreme Court ruling weakening the Voting Rights Act has nullified some of the Democratic resistance that kept many states from pursuing extreme gerrymanders this election cycle.Why it matters: That new energy could put a fresh crop of blue and even purple states on the board as potential redistricting targets ahead of 2028, according to more than 20 federal and state Democratic lawmakers Axios spoke to.Even some legislators who previously resisted redistricting in their states appear to be warming up to the idea after Wednesday's decision.Illinois state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who won the Democratic nomination for Illinois' 7th House District, was one of several Black Caucus members who pushed back against Gov. JB Pritzker's attempt to redistrict last fall. He told Axios in a phone interview Thursday, "All things should be considered at this point."State of play: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), in an interview with Politico, named New York, Illinois, Colorado and Maryland as possible targets. But the list could go well beyond that, with House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) telling Axios his home state may take another bite of the apple after drawing a new map for 2026."We'll see what Southern states do leading into 2028, when California will respond just like we responded to Texas," Aguilar said. "We're not going to back away from a fight."Washington and Oregon are other possibilities, Aguilar told Axios. Both states would be tough lifts, he said, but the VRA ruling has meaningfully changed Democrats' calculus.Here's where Democratic redistricting efforts for 2028 stand:MarylandThe state House of Delegates passed a bill in February that would have likely turned its 8-1 Democratic map into a 9-0 one. State Senate President Bill Ferguson refused to bring the measure to a vote.Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.) told Axios that "the vast majority of people in Maryland wanted to move forward" and "the folks that did not hopefully got the message from the Supreme Court Wednesday about the urgency of this.""There is going to be overwhelming sentiment now for Maryland to join Virginia and California," Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said.Between the lines: "Let's see if [Ferguson] loses reelection. ... He was the obstacle," one state House delegate told Axios, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts about a sensitive internal dynamic.Ferguson's primary battle with Baltimore social media influencer and small-business owner Bobby LaPin "will be close," this lawmaker said.Ferguson did not respond to an email requesting comment.A third House Democrat from Maryland told Axios there is still concern about the state Supreme Court, which is dominated by GOP appointees, but "we will see if it's enough to stop the state from reconsidering."Illinois"We can't just sit back and watch Republicans and the courts erode voter rights protection and do nothing," Ford, who is running in November for a safely blue U.S. House seat, told Axios."This puts us in a situation where we have to figure out a new way to approach."What we're hearing: A House Democrat from Illinois, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they "don't think that there's an appetite, but, you know, it's a different landscape.""There's a 17-0 map that's out there, and that's the nuclear option in Illinois. Yep, it could be done. But what will is there to do the nuclear option? ... I don't think that that's there."However, state lawmakers could ultimately be persuaded, the Democrat said, because "if folks ... think that democracy is at stake, well, then, you can't ignore that."New YorkDemocratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said Wednesday in a post on X that she is "working with the Legislature to change New York's redistricting process so we can fight back against Washington's attempts to rig our democracy."The state has a bipartisan redistricting commission that could be overridden by a constitutional amendment passed by two separate sessions of the state Legislature and a public ballot initiative.A House Democrat from New York told Axios that Jeffries is "dead serious" about pushing redistricting in his home state and predicted Democrats would "likely win" a public redistricting referendum.ColoradoThe state, arguably the Democrats' best opportunity to pick up seats, is increasingly blue with an even partisan split among its eight House seats, thanks to a bipartisan redistricting commission.Democrats are already working on securing a ballot initiative to redraw the state's congressional maps for 2028 and 2030, with an eye to picking up as many as three more seats.CaliforniaVoters in the state passed a ballot initiative in November suspending its bipartisan redistricting commission until 2032, allowing Democrats to try to draw out five of the state's nine House Republicans.Now, Democrats say they may try to go after the remaining ones, with Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) telling Axios that "everything's on the table. ...

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"These are not normal times": Inside Democrats' sweeping 2028 redistricting plans
Axios

"These are not normal times": Inside Democrats' sweeping 2028 redistricting plans

Center Left

This week's Supreme Court ruling weakening the Voting Rights Act has nullified some of the Democratic resistance that kept many states from pursuing extreme gerrymanders this election cycle.Why it matters: That new energy could put a fresh crop of blue and even purple states on the board as potential redistricting targets ahead of 2028, according to more than 20 federal and state Democratic lawmakers Axios spoke to.Even some legislators who previously resisted redistricting in their states appear to be warming up to the idea after Wednesday's decision.Illinois state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who won the Democratic nomination for Illinois' 7th House District, was one of several Black Caucus members who pushed back against Gov. JB Pritzker's attempt to redistrict last fall. He told Axios in a phone interview Thursday, "All things should be considered at this point."State of play: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), in an interview with Politico, named New York, Illinois, Colorado and Maryland as possible targets. But the list could go well beyond that, with House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) telling Axios his home state may take another bite of the apple after drawing a new map for 2026."We'll see what Southern states do leading into 2028, when California will respond just like we responded to Texas," Aguilar said. "We're not going to back away from a fight."Washington and Oregon are other possibilities, Aguilar told Axios. Both states would be tough lifts, he said, but the VRA ruling has meaningfully changed Democrats' calculus.Here's where Democratic redistricting efforts for 2028 stand:MarylandThe state House of Delegates passed a bill in February that would have likely turned its 8-1 Democratic map into a 9-0 one. State Senate President Bill Ferguson refused to bring the measure to a vote.Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.) told Axios that "the vast majority of people in Maryland wanted to move forward" and "the folks that did not hopefully got the message from the Supreme Court Wednesday about the urgency of this.""There is going to be overwhelming sentiment now for Maryland to join Virginia and California," Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said.Between the lines: "Let's see if [Ferguson] loses reelection. ... He was the obstacle," one state House delegate told Axios, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts about a sensitive internal dynamic.Ferguson's primary battle with Baltimore social media influencer and small-business owner Bobby LaPin "will be close," this lawmaker said.Ferguson did not respond to an email requesting comment.A third House Democrat from Maryland told Axios there is still concern about the state Supreme Court, which is dominated by GOP appointees, but "we will see if it's enough to stop the state from reconsidering."Illinois"We can't just sit back and watch Republicans and the courts erode voter rights protection and do nothing," Ford, who is running in November for a safely blue U.S. House seat, told Axios."This puts us in a situation where we have to figure out a new way to approach."What we're hearing: A House Democrat from Illinois, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they "don't think that there's an appetite, but, you know, it's a different landscape.""There's a 17-0 map that's out there, and that's the nuclear option in Illinois. Yep, it could be done. But what will is there to do the nuclear option? ... I don't think that that's there."However, state lawmakers could ultimately be persuaded, the Democrat said, because "if folks ... think that democracy is at stake, well, then, you can't ignore that."New YorkDemocratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said Wednesday in a post on X that she is "working with the Legislature to change New York's redistricting process so we can fight back against Washington's attempts to rig our democracy."The state has a bipartisan redistricting commission that could be overridden by a constitutional amendment passed by two separate sessions of the state Legislature and a public ballot initiative.A House Democrat from New York told Axios that Jeffries is "dead serious" about pushing redistricting in his home state and predicted Democrats would "likely win" a public redistricting referendum.ColoradoThe state, arguably the Democrats' best opportunity to pick up seats, is increasingly blue with an even partisan split among its eight House seats, thanks to a bipartisan redistricting commission.Democrats are already working on securing a ballot initiative to redraw the state's congressional maps for 2028 and 2030, with an eye to picking up as many as three more seats.CaliforniaVoters in the state passed a ballot initiative in November suspending its bipartisan redistricting commission until 2032, allowing Democrats to try to draw out five of the state's nine House Republicans.Now, Democrats say they may try to go after the remaining ones, with Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) telling Axios that "everything's on the table. ...