Florida congressional map survives first court test

A Florida judge kept Gov. Ron DeSantis' new congressional map alive Tuesday, allowing the state to implement a Republican-friendly plan while three state lawsuits continue.Why it matters: The national redistricting fight is a race to pre-write who controls Congress before voters ever see a ballot. Control of the U.S. House could turn on seats manufactured in state capitals as part of a mid-decade redistricting war started by President Trump.In 2010 nearly 63% of Florida voters approved a ban on partisan gerrymandering, but DeSantis' general counsel told lawmakers the state doesn't have to abide by that ban.The latest: The ruling by Leon County Circuit Judge Joshua Hawkes, a DeSantis appointee, keeps DeSantis' map in place while the lawsuits continue and election officials prepare for the 2026 races.The fight likely ends at the Florida Supreme Court, where DeSantis appointed six of seven justices and all seven were appointed by Republican governors.Hawkes found plaintiffs had not shown a substantial likelihood of success, writing that mapmaker Jason Poreda's use of partisan data was circumstantial evidence, not direct proof of illegal intent.He said forcing Florida back to its 2022 map on a rushed record would be improper, especially with the state's election machinery already underway and the primary less than three months away.The big picture: DeSantis' map lands in a national redistricting fight that is moving fast and mostly in Republicans' direction.The U.S. Supreme Court strengthened GOP arguments against race-conscious districts.Virginia's pro-Democratic gerrymander was struck down by its state Supreme Court. Louisiana is expected to convert one of its two Black Democratic seats into a Republican seat. Tennessee has already eliminated its last Democratic, Black-majority seat.Flashback: DeSantis already remade Florida's congressional map once.In 2022, he vetoed the Legislature's map, pushed lawmakers to pass his own and helped produce a delegation of 20 Republicans and just eight Democrats.This year, his office drew the replacement map, sent it to lawmakers and provided Axios a version colored red and blue by partisan performance.Catch up quick: All three state lawsuits challenging DeSantis' map have been consolidated before Hawkes.At Friday's hearing, plaintiffs leaned on DeSantis' mapmaker Jason Poreda's statements that he drew the map "not having to comply with the Fair Districts Amendment" and used "partisan data" for "every district."DeSantis first unveiled the map to Fox News by pointing to Florida's shift from a Democratic voter registration advantage "to a 1.5 million Republican advantage."GOP state Rep. Tom Fabricio posted on X: "Done correctly, this will strengthen Republican seats, help keep a GOP majority in Congress to advance solid policies and stand up to the woke left."The other side: The state argued the court has no power to block the map and that changing maps this close to an election would confuse voters.That timing argument has an obvious tension: The state is defending a map enacted months before the primary.Although the Fair Districts Amendment bans any districts "drawn to favor or disfavor" a political party, the state argued plaintiffs had to prove the Legislature, not just the person who drew the map, was biased.The state doesn't argue the map improved districts' compactness or other requirements under the Fair Districts Amendments. But it says the map was roughly comparable on those metrics.What's next: Plaintiffs already filed notices of appeal, and the lawsuits will continue to trial.Judge Hawkes wrote the challenge "is more geared toward the 2028 or 2030 election cycles than the 2026 election cycle."The bottom line: DeSantis' efforts to upend Florida Democrats' districts looks likely to hold for at least the 2026 election.This article has been updated with more comment from Judge Joshua Hawkes and further context.