Trump team reveals 'desperate' US walking into a 'trap' on Iran: foreign policy experts

Source: Alternet.org · Bias: Left

Summary

Despite comments from the White House on Wednesday, the Strait of Hormuz is not open — a condition of President Donald Trump to end his role in the bombing campaign against Iran. Brett McGurk, the former Middle East and North Africa coordinator for the National Security Council, told CNN on Thursday that it's clear the White House is just as lost as everyone else about the state of the war or the ceasefire. "The key precondition is not being met," he said. "And that's what the Pakistani prime minister's first statement [was] about. What this was about, there'd be a ceasefire and the Strait would reopen. That has not happened. So, therefore, where are we? I think this ceasefire is extremely fragile. I think there's a decent chance it's going to break down here over the coming days."However, if the agreement holds, "there's no firing. I think that's very positive," said McGurk. Overnight, Vice President JD Vance agreed to meet with Pakistani and Iranian leaders at the most senior levels. McGurk said that Vance must be careful because it's clear that coming out of such a meeting without the Strait's opening would be disastrous for the U.S."It would be extremely damaging. So I would be very cautious heading into that meeting. And I think we should hold very firm. The Strait opens, or else there's really no ceasefire, and there's not going to be a meeting," said McGurk.Karim Sadjapour, an American policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN that the only objective Iran had in the war was to survive. "And when President Trump first attacked, on the eve of the attack, he called for people to eventually go out into the streets and said to the people of Iran, 'The country is yours to take.' And so that metric was set very high on our end. It was to potentially change the regime to totally destroy their nuclear program, their missile program. Now the conversation has shifted."As recently as yesterday, Trump suggested a joint venture between America and Iran to control rhe Strait of Hormuz. "So, the conversation has totally shifted from regime change in Iran to potential joint ventures and peace with Iran," Sadjapour said. "And the other thing I'd say to accentuate something Brett said earlier, when you listen to the language of [Mohammad-Bagher] Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament in Tehran, and JD Vance, the vice president, who are potentially going to meet, it sounds like Ghalibaf is the representative of the superpower in JD Vance is the representative of a regional power which is desperate for peace."CNN host John Berman asked what that meant, and Sadjapour said that he thinks that Iran will overplay its hand. McGurk said that he hopes the U.S. would already know what the goals are, what it will ask for and what the plan is for the negotiation before the vice president arrives. "But meanwhile, if Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz and we have just legitimized this new system with Ghalibaf, whoever's actually in charge as they control the Strait of Hormuz, that is exactly what Iran wants," McGurk continued. "They want this historic meeting, the Islamabad meeting, which will be called for all time with the American vice president as they are controlling the Strait of Hormuz. That's the precedent they want to set. And I do not think we should walk into that trap."

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Trump team reveals 'desperate' US walking into a 'trap' on Iran: foreign policy experts
Alternet.org

Trump team reveals 'desperate' US walking into a 'trap' on Iran: foreign policy experts

Left

Despite comments from the White House on Wednesday, the Strait of Hormuz is not open — a condition of President Donald Trump to end his role in the bombing campaign against Iran. Brett McGurk, the former Middle East and North Africa coordinator for the National Security Council, told CNN on Thursday that it's clear the White House is just as lost as everyone else about the state of the war or the ceasefire. "The key precondition is not being met," he said. "And that's what the Pakistani prime minister's first statement [was] about. What this was about, there'd be a ceasefire and the Strait would reopen. That has not happened. So, therefore, where are we? I think this ceasefire is extremely fragile. I think there's a decent chance it's going to break down here over the coming days."However, if the agreement holds, "there's no firing. I think that's very positive," said McGurk. Overnight, Vice President JD Vance agreed to meet with Pakistani and Iranian leaders at the most senior levels. McGurk said that Vance must be careful because it's clear that coming out of such a meeting without the Strait's opening would be disastrous for the U.S."It would be extremely damaging. So I would be very cautious heading into that meeting. And I think we should hold very firm. The Strait opens, or else there's really no ceasefire, and there's not going to be a meeting," said McGurk.Karim Sadjapour, an American policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN that the only objective Iran had in the war was to survive. "And when President Trump first attacked, on the eve of the attack, he called for people to eventually go out into the streets and said to the people of Iran, 'The country is yours to take.' And so that metric was set very high on our end. It was to potentially change the regime to totally destroy their nuclear program, their missile program. Now the conversation has shifted."As recently as yesterday, Trump suggested a joint venture between America and Iran to control rhe Strait of Hormuz. "So, the conversation has totally shifted from regime change in Iran to potential joint ventures and peace with Iran," Sadjapour said. "And the other thing I'd say to accentuate something Brett said earlier, when you listen to the language of [Mohammad-Bagher] Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament in Tehran, and JD Vance, the vice president, who are potentially going to meet, it sounds like Ghalibaf is the representative of the superpower in JD Vance is the representative of a regional power which is desperate for peace."CNN host John Berman asked what that meant, and Sadjapour said that he thinks that Iran will overplay its hand. McGurk said that he hopes the U.S. would already know what the goals are, what it will ask for and what the plan is for the negotiation before the vice president arrives. "But meanwhile, if Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz and we have just legitimized this new system with Ghalibaf, whoever's actually in charge as they control the Strait of Hormuz, that is exactly what Iran wants," McGurk continued. "They want this historic meeting, the Islamabad meeting, which will be called for all time with the American vice president as they are controlling the Strait of Hormuz. That's the precedent they want to set. And I do not think we should walk into that trap."

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