Ominous ‘shock’ warning from political scientist gets ‘more severe’ with new development

On July 6, political scientist Robert Pape made an ominous prediction that an "August energy shock" could send global oil prices skyrocketing, but on Monday, a recent development led him to double down and forecast an even bigger shock to come.Last week, the Yemeni military organization the Houthis implemented a new maritime blockade on Saudi Arabian energy exports through the Red Sea, and over the weekend, Saudi Arabia launched attacks against the Houthis after its oil tankers came under fire.“After Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, over 40% of Saudi oil bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea is not hitting the global market. More attacks could reduce this further,” Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago, wrote in an analysis published Monday on his Substack. “By opening an active Red Sea front through its regional partners while keeping Hormuz closed, Iran [is] no longer presenting Washington with one maritime challenge. It is creating a two-front war problem in strategically linked theaters that must be managed at the same time.”Pape predicted as far back as June 15 that Iran was well positioned to “exploit the oil inventory clock” and weaponize rising oil prices to its advantage. He reiterated that analysis on July 6 and more explicitly predicted that an “energy shock” could hit global markets in August.Energy prices have, in fact, increased significantly since Pape’s initial prediction. With the United States having ramped up attacks on Iran starting earlier this month, gas prices have since soared in the United States to an average of $4.10 a gallon as of Friday, and are “poised to climb higher,” per NBC News.“In my July 6 briefing, I warned that the earlier prediction was on track,” Pape wrote. “The developments of the past week reinforce that strategic logic and likely make the coming shock more severe.”

Trump Says He Believes in Giving People a 'Second Chance.' For 6,000 People, the Answer Was No.

The administration this month denied thousands of clemency applications.

3 dead in mass shooting in Seattle. And, U.S. and Iran pause fighting

A mass shooting at a Seattle festival has left three people dead. And, the U.S. and Iran have been exchanging diplomatic messages after nearly tw weeks of intense fighting.

Three Dead and Four People Wounded in Seattle Shooting

Police arrested a suspect after three people were killed and at least four others were wounded in a shooting at a Seattle food festival.

Three dead and several injured in shooting at food festival near Seattle's Space Needle

Several others, including a two-year-old boy, were also injured. Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson says a suspect is in custody.

2 dead, multiple injured in shooting near Seattle Space Needle

The police department is asking people to avoid the area while the investigation is active.

Berlin Pride Attack: Suspect Named As Islamist With Prior Terror Ties

Pentagon reports more than 600 Iran war casualties in quiet database update

Figures are source of dispute as US defense department days ago reduced record of troops killed and woundedThe Pentagon updated its official war casualty database over the weekend, adding more than 140 wounded service members. The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) also introduced a new casualty category labeled “Overseas Operations” for personnel killed and wounded “starting July 7”.According to the updated database, the official toll for the earlier phase of the US-Iran war, known as Operation Epic Fury, now stands at 14 service members killed and more than 400 wounded in action. Continue reading...