President Donald Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be open by Friday. Officials say the US and Iran are due to sign their interim peace deal in Switzerland on Friday. For now, Trump is still at the G7 in France. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall has the latest. (Source: Bloomberg)
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The U.S.-Iran deal was signed electronically on Sunday by President Trump, Vice President Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, senior administration officials told reporters on Monday. Why it matters: The deal is already testing whether Washington and Tehran can turn a battlefield pause into a broader settlement — starting with the Strait of Hormuz, and then moving to the far thornier question of Iran's nuclear program.State of play: A 60-day ceasefire extension is in effect, U.S. officials say, including in Lebanon. But the Strait of Hormuz is not expected to begin reopening until after a formal signing ceremony Friday in Geneva.Vance, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Ghalibaf and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet Friday with Pakistani and Qatari mediators to discuss the next phase.U.S. officials say the full text of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) will be released in the next 24-48 hours, though Trump said it might not be published until after it's signed.The big picture: Washington and Tehran are racing to shape the narrative around a deal that few people have actually read, but which markets, world leaders and ordinary citizens are already reacting to.The U.S. says relief for Iran will be tied to performance. Iranian state media has described a more generous package.Shipping companies say they're waiting for clearer guarantees from Tehran before sending cargo through the Strait of Hormuz.Hawks in Washington and Israel are pressing the White House to explain exactly what Iran is getting — and what happens if nuclear talks fail.Breaking it down: Here are eight key questions that are still swirling around the deal.The White House did not respond to the questions when asked by Axios.1. Is the deal actually in effect?The MOU was signed electronically on Sunday, with a more formal signing ceremony to be held on Friday in Switzerland.The 60-day extension of the ceasefire took immediate effect, but the strait is not yet fully open.While Trump announced the "immediate" lifting of the U.S. blockade and opening of the strait on Sunday, he later said it would open on Friday once the ceremony takes place.A U.S. defense official said the military was ordered to prepare to lift the blockade Friday.Trump claimed Monday that ships were already moving, though Iranian state media said the status of the strait was unchanged.2. Will the strait be truly "open"?The U.S. side has consistently said the deal would open the strait without "tolls" or any other restrictions. A regional diplomat involved in the mediation told Axios last week that the deal called for shipping volumes through the strait to return to prewar levels within 30 days. But Iranian officials have told state media the strait won't simply return to "pre-war status," and that Iran will retain some level of control.The Fars news agency reported that Iran had agreed not to impose tolls during the 60 days, but would begin charging safety and environmental fees after that.The intrigue: A senior administration official said there would be a "regional dialogue" on the future of the strait and how to ensure it will never be closed again.State of play: Shipping companies are moving cautiously. Maersk and others have said they're waiting for more clarity and guarantees of safety, and some analysts doubt volumes will actually return to the pre-war norm any time soon.A senior administration official told reporters the U.S. expects volumes to increase significantly over the next two weeks, though probably not to return to normal."Some crews want to see a little bit more stability for the next couple of days, maybe the next couple of weeks," the official said.3. What does Iran get?Both sides agree that Iran gets two big things: an end to the fighting, and sanctions waivers to allow oil exports. That alone would generate much-needed revenue for Tehran, but Iranian state media has claimed the government is also getting billions of dollars in frozen funds just for signing.A senior U.S. official adamantly denied that, saying Iran would only get access to those funds based on a "pay for performance model." The full economic benefits of the deal, the U.S. side says, depend on signing a more detailed nuclear accord.Some skeptics of the deal have raised concerns there might be side agreements that give Iran access to cash immediately, though the White House calls that "misinformation."Yes, but: The senior administration official said the U.S. was prepared to make some "small gestures" early in the process on frozen funds and sanctions relief if Iran made similar "gestures" reflecting their willingness to comply with the deal.4. Do they agree about what's been agreed?The U.S.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) called on the Trump administration Monday to brief Congress immediately on the “understanding” with Iran that President Trump says would reopen the Strait of Hormuz but leaves the future of Iran’s nuclear program for later talks. “The American people deserve details and full transparency – what exactly is in…
Washington Examiner White House reporter Christian Datoc described the various political, military, and diplomatic pressures on President Donald Trump as the United States nears a peace deal with Iran. “Ultimately, President Trump has a mountain to climb, not only because of ending the war itself, but kind of countering growing public dissatisfaction with the way […]
President Donald Trump did not appear willing to extend his current trip to Evian, France, for the G7 summit to attend the official signing of the memorandum of understanding with Iran on Friday in Geneva, Switzerland. “Well, it depends,” Trump told reporters during a bilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday. “JD is […]
Emergency stockpiles of crude oil in the United States have hit the lowest level they have been since the 1980s, as the oil and gas markets grapple with the fallout from the war in Iran. The monthslong conflict disrupted more than 11 million barrels per day of oil from global trade, threatening supply worldwide and […]
