What to Watch in Tuesday’s Primary Elections in Iowa, Montana and Beyond
Center Left
Democrats have a competitive Senate primary race in Iowa, where the party is hoping to make gains, while a smokejumper is running in a contested House primary in Montana.
California voters must decide top two candidates to advance in governor’s race; Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico also hold primariesSign up for the Breaking News US emailCalifornia elections: governor, LA mayor and Congress at stake Californians are frustrated and underwhelmed as they head to the polls to cast their ballots in Tuesday’s primary election, where voters will eliminate all but two candidates in the volatile race for governor, the messy battle for Los Angeles mayor and a series of high-stakes congressional contests.In the marquee race to succeed term-limited Democratic governor Gavin Newsom a trio of new surveys shows Democrat Xavier Becerra pulling slightly ahead as progressive Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton scrap for the second-place spot to advance in the state’s nonpartisan primary. Continue reading...
There is little sign of clarity in the closing stretch of a campaign season for governor, Congress and LA mayorUS politics – live updatesCalifornians are frustrated and underwhelmed as they head to the polls to cast their ballots in Tuesday’s primary election, where voters will eliminate all but two candidates in the volatile race for governor, the messy battle for Los Angeles mayor and a series of high-stakes congressional contests.In the marquee race to succeed term-limited Democratic governor Gavin Newsom a trio of new surveys shows Democrat Xavier Becerra pulling slightly ahead as progressive Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton scrap for the second-place spot to advance in the state’s nonpartisan primary. Meanwhile, voters in Los Angeles remain divided over whether to stand by embattled mayor Karen Bass or to elevate her challengers. Continue reading...
The fight to shape the future of the Democratic Party is playing out in a slew of key primaries Tuesday, as races in six states set the matchups in crucial November battlegrounds and settle personal and ideological battles across the country
Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary in Iowa is shaping up as an early test of whether running against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) resonates with the party’s base in a state President Donald Trump has carried three times. While national Democrats have quietly signaled a preference for state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls […]
House Democrats are looking to Tuesday's primaries in California as a major test of the anti-incumbency sentiment among their voters.Why it matters: This will be the first time in the 2026 election when multiple House Democrats in their 70s and 80s face off against primary insurgents who have hammered them for their lengthy tenures.California Democratic Reps. Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui and Brad Sherman — all 70 or older — are among those facing tough primary fights with younger Democratic challengers.Their Democratic colleagues are watching "all of them closely," one senior House Democrat said, as well as the LA mayor's race and the state's gubernatorial election."Just to see the anti-incumbent sentiment," another senior House Democrat told Axios.State of play: June 2 is California's jungle primary, in which all candidates for a given office run in one contest and the top two vote-getters — regardless of party — advance to a runoff in November.Often, that dynamic matches up the top-performing Democrat and Republican. However, in several deeply blue House districts, the incumbent is more likely to face another Democrat in the fall.This year, an unusually large number of incumbents are facing well-funded challengers who are going after their lengthy tenures and arguing that it is time for a new generation of Democratic leaders.These are the House races that Democrats have their eyes on:California's 4th District: Thompson, a 75-year-old member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition first elected in 1998, is trying to fend off 35-year-old venture capitalist Eric Jones.Both Democrats have raised huge sums, with Thompson bringing in just under $3 million as of March 31 and Jones raising over $3.2 million over the same period, including a $364,000 personal loan.Jones has tried to harness anti-incumbency sentiment, with ads declaring that "too many Democrats have been in Washington so long, they're not up to the fight," and hitting Thompson as "corrupt" and "ineffective."Thompson, for his part, has played up his anti-Trump bona fides and hit Jones on his corporate background by depicting him as a "lapdog for big corporations."California's 7th District: 81-year-old Rep. Doris Matsui, who took office in 2005, is facing a stiff challenge from progressive former Sacramento City Council member Mai Vang, 41, who has been endorsed by the Sacramento Bee.Matsui has raised eyebrows with a red box on her website (a method campaigns use to signal super PACs) touting GOP candidate Zachariah Wooden, in what progressives say is a tactic to box Vang out of the runoff.Inclusion PAC — an outside group whose only listed donor, a local union, also donated to Matsui's campaign — has filed with the FEC to spend over $100,000 on ads promoting Wooden.This is another race defined by negative campaigning, with Vang's red box advocating "purely negative messaging against the incumbent."California's 32nd District: Rep. Brad Sherman, a 71-year-old who has been in office since 1997, is being challenged by Jake Levine, a 42-year-old former Biden administration official.Levine's campaign has, perhaps more than any other primary insurgent's, made Sherman's length of service a central issue in its messaging, running multiple ads targeting the incumbent's 30-year tenure.Sherman's campaign has largely ignored Levine — his red box encourages PACs not to mention him — and has focused on portraying him as a hard-charging, anti-Trump crusader who delivers for his district.Zoom out: Several incumbents below retirement age are also facing credible progressive primary challengers, including Reps. Ami Bera in the state's 3rd District and Jimmy Gomez in the 34th District.There are a slew of hotly contested open primaries as well, including to replace former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in the 11th District.In the 22nd District, State Assembly member Jasmeet Bains has the backing of House Democrats' campaign arm to take on GOP Rep. David Valadao, but first she has to defeat progressive Randy Villegas.
The battle for the soul of the Democratic Party is on the ballot Tuesday, with at least a half-dozen primaries across the country testing which wing of the party has the most juice heading into the 2026 midterms.Why it matters: Progressive and moderate Democrats have been locked in a fierce debate over how to rebuild the party's brand since its candidates lost to Donald Trump for a second time in 2024.Progressives argue that Americans are hungry for a populist, tax-the-rich agenda, while moderate and establishment-aligned Dems believe the party needs to tack to the center to win back swing voters.This week's contests — and several others in the coming months — will help determine which of these paths Democratic voters want this year. They'll also help lay the groundwork for the party's strategy in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election — when Trump won't be on the ballot.These are the key races to watch Tuesday:Iowa's Senate primary: Democrats think the political environment is favorable enough that they have a chance to flip a Senate seat in this deep-red state. Josh Turek, a moderate Democratic state lawmaker and Paralympic gold medalist, is seen as the favorite in their primary against progressive Zach Wahls. A Turek victory would be a win for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who's quietly indicated he thinks Turek's the more electable candidate. Wahls has made attacking Schumer a key part of his campaign. The primary winner will likely face GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson this fall.California's open primary for governor: In this state's "jungle primary," the top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to the Nov. 3 election. A leading Democrat is Tom Steyer, a billionaire philanthropist who's being advised by left-wing consultants who helped run New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's campaign. Another is former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a more traditional Democrat. A Trump-endorsed Republican, Steve Hilton, is also in the mix.New Jersey's 12th Congressional District: New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are backing progressive Adam Hamawy in the crowded Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman in this blue seat. Hamawy, a U.S. Army veteran who's viewed as the frontrunner, also is backed by a pro-Palestinian super PAC. He's attracted negative headlines for his former ties to an infamous Islamist cleric. Other Democratic candidates in this central Jersey district include progressive activist Sue Altman, as well as state Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds-Jackson and East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen, who are viewed as more establishment-oriented or moderate.California's 22nd Congressional District: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has thrown its weight behind state Assembly Member Jasmeet Bains in the primary for a battleground seat in the Central Valley. Progressives have lined up behind community college professor Randy Villegas. They're both vying to take on GOP Rep. David Valadao in the fall.California's 11th Congressional District: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Connie Chan, a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, to fill the seat Pelosi's vacating. Leftist Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff to AOC who notably lacks her endorsement, is proudly anti-establishment. Another contender is state Sen. Scott Wiener, who's seen as more moderate than Chakrabarti and Chan.Other races we're watching: There are several other progressive-vs.-moderate primaries in California on Tuesday, along with others testing voters' appetite for generational change, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.What's next: More ideological showdowns between Democrats are coming soon in New York, Minnesota and Michigan.
