What Are Graham Platner's Chances of Unseating Susan Collins?
Center Left
NBC News is projecting Democrat Graham Planter will face incumbent Republican Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race in November. Meanwhile, Republican Steve Hilton is projected to face off against former Biden cabinet secretary Xavier Becerra in the race for California governor. NBC’s Ryan Nobles reports for TODAY.
Democratic candidate Graham Platner coasted to an easy nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Maine on Tuesday night, overcoming weeks of negative press over scandals about his personal life and interactions with women to take on longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins, a top target of Democrats hoping to flip control of the upper chamber.While Republicans project confidence in the race publicly, a recent memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is throwing up alarms, warning this could be a tough fight and Collins must not be caught off guard.The memo was posted to X on Wednesday morning by Fox News' Alexis McAdams."Maine has become more than a battleground state in this year's fight for control of the Senate. It has become a linchpin," stated the NRSC memo. "Because Democrats cannot win the majority without it, they have fully rallied around Graham Platner, an extremely flawed, far-left candidate who secured the nomination last night. Platner has captured his party's financial backing, outraising Senator Collins in every quarter since entering the race. We must match both the energy and the money to retain the seat."The memo outlined the fact that one of Platner's best fundraising days was after the story dropped about his problematic relationships with women.Ultimately, the memo concluded, in a state as Democratic-leaning as Maine, "it is a fatal mistake to assume Platner is too damaged to win. He is currently leading. Vice President Harris won the state by 7 points, and the National Democrats view this as their only path to regaining control." Collins, the memo said, has to be protected "with total urgency."
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) said voters in Maine are giving Graham Platner, who won the Democratic Senate nomination, a chance to rebuild credibility as a candidate after a series of controversies about his past have surfaced. “He understands he needs to do work; he understands they’re giving him a chance at redemption,” Khanna said on […]
The mad and bad Roman emperor, Caligula, made his horse a senator. So the scope for mad and bad political choices is wide. After winning the Democratic primary in Maine on Tuesday, essentially unopposed, Graham Platner is feeling his oats. And he might gallop all the way to the U.S. Senate in November, despite being […]
Maine Democrats handed progressive firebrand Graham Platner an easy win in Tuesday's Senate primary, looking past his personal scandals in hopes he can oust five-term GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November.Why it matters: Tuesday's results set up what's sure to be a nasty, expensive battle for a seat that will go a long way toward determining control of the Senate. They also illustrated the huge contrasts now animating the political parties:GOP voters are almost always in lockstep with the leader of their party, President Trump, whose pick for South Carolina governor advanced to a runoff.As for Democrats, the combination of being desperate for victory and having no one with enough clout to stop an embattled outsider helped set the stage for Platner's big win over Gov. Janet Mills, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's pick in the race.Zoom in: Platner's victory was also the latest one for Democratic progressives in their ongoing civil war with the party's moderates.Standing behind a sign that defiantly read, "They Don't Know Maine," Platner delivered an acceptance speech that mixed talk of his past regrets and slammed elites who'd opposed him."The national pundits, the political establishment, they keep looking for that one story, that one headline, that one moment in my life that they can define the campaign by," Platner said. "But in trying so hard to understand me, they failed to understand that this is not about me at all. This is a movement about us."Late Tuesday, Schumer and Senate Democrats' top super PAC put out statements making clear they support Platner.Key takeaways from Tuesday:Platner's latest round of scandals haven't hurt him — yet. His campaign has been a roller coaster ride of revelations, from the Nazi-linked tattoo he covered up to the recent reports that he'd sent sexually suggestive texts to women who weren't his wife. The reports gripped D.C. and made lots of ad fodder for Republicans, but didn't appear to damage Platner in Tuesday's primary. Early returns showed him with about 72% of the vote— close to his poll numbers before the latest headlines.Here come the attacks: In a preview of the smash-mouth assaults headed for Platner, Republican National Committee chair Joe Gruters called the Democratic nominee a "racist, sexist, Nazi-loving domestic abuser." Platner, a Marine combat veteran, kick-started his campaign against Collins by casting her as a corrupt warmonger who "handed out billions of dollars to defense companies" while "I got blown up."The parties' role-reversal: On one side, there's a scandal-plagued man running as a populist that the political establishment tried and failed to stop. On the other, a moderate woman who's been in D.C. for decades. It's not the 2016 election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton — it's the match-up between Platner and Collins that looks like the Senate version, with the parties switched. Dems warm to controversy: Blame it on Trump lowering the bar for candidates' personal conduct, Democrats losing trust in their leaders to know what it takes to win, or something darker. Platner's primary victory signals that Democratic voters have become more willing to accept skeletons in a candidate's closet. Trump picks a winner, while Rep. Nancy Mace hits a dead end: In the latest affirmation of Trump's power over the GOP, his pick in South Carolina's gubernatorial primary, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, advanced to a runoff with state Attorney General Alan Wilson. Mace, a former Trump loyalist who fell out of favor with him after pushing for the release of the Epstein files, was running fifth in the primary.
Outcome of polls in four states offer mixed signals about direction of two major parties before November’s midtermsProgressives rallied round the controversial Graham Platner after his primary victory in Maine on Tuesday, while Donald Trump again exerted his grip on the Republican party, helping to defeat a politician who had pushed for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files.Primary elections were held in four states – Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina – ahead of November’s midterms to decide control of both houses of Congress. The results offered mixed signals about the direction of the two major parties. Continue reading...
Progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner easily won the Democratic contest on Tuesday to take on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) — officially teeing up one of this year’s marquee Senate races. Planter was expected to win the Democratic primary, but recent revelations over a sexting scandal and his alleged toxic conduct from several ex-girlfriends have rocked his campaign and rattled…
Democrats have rolled the dice in Maine as they pursue a post-Trump future. Will it work?It was over the moment he received the endorsement of Maine’s most famous resident: Stephen King, the master of horror, who announced on Tuesday that he voted for Graham Platner.More than 100,000 Democrats in Maine agreed, making Platner, a marine veteran and oyster farmer, their nominee for the US Senate against Republican incumbent Susan Collins in November. Continue reading...
Graham Platner will kick off starts his first general election at one of the lowest points of his upstart Senate campaign. There has been nonstop coverage, both in Maine and nationally, about racy text messages he sent to women who aren’t his wife, as well as his alleged callous treatment of ex-girlfriends. That drumbeat helped lead to Tuesday’s election results, in which about 20 percent of Maine Democrats essentially gave Platner a no-confidence vote by backing Governor Janet Mills, who had suspended her campaign in late April because Platner had built a substantial lead over her, despite the backing of establishment Democrats in Washington, D.C. Now, journalists are writing articles describing how the Maine Democratic Party could choose a new, scandal-free candidate if Platner can be convinced to drop out by July 13. It’s not an ideal beginning to his battle with incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, who has consistently overperformed in Maine elections. Democrats are nervous about Platner, and they should be. In a must-win Senate race, voters have nominated a high-risk, high-reward candidate—one whose downside seems much clearer than his upside. That said, all is not lost. Platner has a very strong chance of winning this seat. These last few weeks could end up being much ado about little. Why am I optimistic about Platner? First and foremost, all indications are that this is poised to be a very good election year for Democrats overall—the best for the party since 2018. Democrats have done very well since the start of 2025 in special elections for state legislative and congressional seats across the country, as well as the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey. Trump’s approval ratings are terrible. As data analyst G. Elliott Morris wrote earlier this week, this election is shaping up to be one where stalwart Democratic voters turn out at higher levels than their Republican counterparts; new voters favor the Democrats; and more voters swing from Republican to Democrat than vice versa. In this environment, Democratic candidates are the favorites in toss-up states like Michigan and even more so in places that lean slightly Democratic, like Maine. In “wave” elections, as 2026 is likely to be, politicians from the president’s party often lose even if they are, like Collins, well-established figures. If you want to know what Platner’s biggest advantage is, it’s that he is a Democrat running in 2026. And despite the recent headlines, Platner is a strong candidate. Trust me on this: He is. I know that he has a tattoo of a symbol that had been associated with the Nazi police, he’s written juvenile things in Reddit posts, he has at times misstated details of his personal background, and has behaved toward women in such ways that many Maine voters probably would not want him to marry their daughter. At the same time, he has connected deeply with voters in Maine, who have crowded his events around the state. At a time when many Americans hate traditional politicians and crave outsiders, Planter perfectly fills the bill. For a party desperate to connect better with men, gun owners, people who work in blue-collar jobs, and residents of rural areas, Platner potentially appeals to all four blocs.Mills getting 20 percent of Tuesday’s vote after suspending her campaign makes Platner look weak. But the broader story of the primary is that Platner was so thoroughly defeating Mills, the twice-elected governor recruited by the national Democratic Party for this Senate seat, that she stopped running to avoid the embarrassment of a double-digit loss. That’s impressive. Perhaps Collins is essentially unbeatable. She’s successfully won reelection in 2008 and 2020, two other strong years for Democrats. Maybe Mills, given the right circumstances, might have appealed to some middle-aged and elderly women who will now vote for Collins. But it’s entirely possible that Platner expands the electorate by getting people who would never vote for Mills, Collins, or any traditional politician to back him. There is some evidence that Collins’s act of frequently claiming to be “concerned” with Trump but largely voting for his policies is wearing thin in Maine. In 2017, 67 percent of Maine voters approved of Collins, compared to 27 percent who disapproved, according to Morning Consult. But in a Morning Consult survey conducted last year, 41 percent of Maine voters approved of her, while 55 percent disapproved. That’s a massive downward spiral. Other surveys also show that more Maine residents disapprove of Collins more than those that approve of her. At a time when anti-Washington and anti-establishment sentiment is very high, being a 73-year-old who has served in the Senate since 1997 hurts politically. Collins can’t run against the status quo—she is the status quo. And politicians who seem like permanent fixtures in their states often eventually lose.
