The prospect of a reopened Strait of Hormuz and a pending U.S.-Iran peace deal could help ease the big inflation risk hanging over Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting as chairman."Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz," President Trump said Monday morning in a post on Truth Social.Friction point: Lingering disruptions to shipments of oil, fertilizer and other industrial inputs could keep inflation concerns alive at the Fed.What they're saying: "Sailing through the strait will remain riskier and more costly than before the war," Oxford Economics' Ben May wrote in a note Monday morning. May noted that damage from underwater mines or a sudden re-escalation of the conflict will keep insurance coverage for the strait higher than pre-war levels. Reuters reported Monday morning that ensuring the strait is safe from mines could take weeks. "Physical flows are still likely to recover gradually rather than immediately, even if prices respond more quickly to signs that a credible reopening deal is in place," May wrote.The bottom line: The peace deal might reduce geopolitical risk, though the effects on global supply chains might come more slowly.
President Donald Trump is already planning his next “focus” after his administration formalizes its peace deal with Iran later this week, revisiting one of his most aggravating goals. The president, who is expected to finalize his memorandum of understanding with Tehran on Friday, said Monday that ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be his […]
A diamond from Arkansas, a whale bone from Maine, a New Mexican bolo tie, and an iPhone 17 Pro Max are among the items Americans in 250 years will remember today’s U.S. citizens by. America250, the nonpartisan organization in charge of the country’s semiquincentennial celebrations, released the items that will be stored in its time […]
A US Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bomber crashed shortly after takeoff at Edwards Air Force Base in California, the Pentagon said.
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good morning and happy Monday, Daily on Energy readers! After 53 years, the New York Knicks ended their NBA championship drought over the weekend. Congrats to all the New York fans out there. 🗽🏀🏆 Meanwhile, there may just be an end in sight for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 🚢 […]
Vice President JD Vance confirmed in a CBS interview, Iran could access a $300 billion reconstruction fund as part of the U.S. and Iran peace agreement, funded by the Gulf Cooperation Council Coalition. Vance argued, Tehran hard-liners would emphasize benefits while downplaying required concessions on nuclear programs and oversight. The revelation sparked immediate criticism on social media. University of Wisconsin-Madison statistics professor Karl Rohe noted, "Can we talk about the scale of problems that are going to arise from spending 300 billion? This is 500%-600% larger than the entire annual budget of the Iranian govt. It is one year of Iranian GDP *of the ENTIRE COUNTRY.* This is insane."Analysts highlighted the contradiction with President Donald Trump's earlier claims that Iran would receive no money. "We are going to pay Iran $300 billion to rebuild from the war we started. Wrap your head around that when they claim that Trump is a master negotiator," Fred Wellman, a U.S. Army veteran and Lincoln Project communications strategist, wrote on X.Critics characterized the reconstruction fund as significantly exceeding Obama-era concessions to Iran.Watch the video below. Your browser does not support the video tag.
The U.S.-Iran deal was signed electronically on Sunday by President Trump, Vice President Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, senior administration officials told reporters on Monday. Why it matters: The deal is already testing whether Washington and Tehran can turn a battlefield pause into a broader settlement — starting with the Strait of Hormuz, and then moving to the far thornier question of Iran's nuclear program.State of play: A 60-day ceasefire extension is in effect, U.S. officials say, including in Lebanon. But the Strait of Hormuz is not expected to begin reopening until after a formal signing ceremony Friday in Geneva.Vance, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Ghalibaf and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet Friday with Pakistani and Qatari mediators to discuss the next phase.U.S. officials say the full text of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) will be released in the next 24-48 hours, though Trump said it might not be published until after it's signed.The big picture: Washington and Tehran are racing to shape the narrative around a deal that few people have actually read, but which markets, world leaders and ordinary citizens are already reacting to.The U.S. says relief for Iran will be tied to performance. Iranian state media has described a more generous package.Shipping companies say they're waiting for clearer guarantees from Tehran before sending cargo through the Strait of Hormuz.Hawks in Washington and Israel are pressing the White House to explain exactly what Iran is getting — and what happens if nuclear talks fail.Breaking it down: Here are eight key questions that are still swirling around the deal.The White House did not respond to the questions when asked by Axios.1. Is the deal actually in effect?The MOU was signed electronically on Sunday, with a more formal signing ceremony to be held on Friday in Switzerland.The 60-day extension of the ceasefire took immediate effect, but the strait is not yet fully open.While Trump announced the "immediate" lifting of the U.S. blockade and opening of the strait on Sunday, he later said it would open on Friday once the ceremony takes place.A U.S. defense official said the military was ordered to prepare to lift the blockade Friday.Trump claimed Monday that ships were already moving, though Iranian state media said the status of the strait was unchanged.2. Will the strait be truly "open"?The U.S. side has consistently said the deal would open the strait without "tolls" or any other restrictions. A regional diplomat involved in the mediation told Axios last week that the deal called for shipping volumes through the strait to return to prewar levels within 30 days. But Iranian officials have told state media the strait won't simply return to "pre-war status," and that Iran will retain some level of control.The Fars news agency reported that Iran had agreed not to impose tolls during the 60 days, but would begin charging safety and environmental fees after that.The intrigue: A senior administration official said there would be a "regional dialogue" on the future of the strait and how to ensure it will never be closed again.State of play: Shipping companies are moving cautiously. Maersk and others have said they're waiting for more clarity and guarantees of safety, and some analysts doubt volumes will actually return to the pre-war norm any time soon.A senior administration official told reporters the U.S. expects volumes to increase significantly over the next two weeks, though probably not to return to normal."Some crews want to see a little bit more stability for the next couple of days, maybe the next couple of weeks," the official said.3. What does Iran get?Both sides agree that Iran gets two big things: an end to the fighting, and sanctions waivers to allow oil exports. That alone would generate much-needed revenue for Tehran, but Iranian state media has claimed the government is also getting billions of dollars in frozen funds just for signing.A senior U.S. official adamantly denied that, saying Iran would only get access to those funds based on a "pay for performance model." The full economic benefits of the deal, the U.S. side says, depend on signing a more detailed nuclear accord.Some skeptics of the deal have raised concerns there might be side agreements that give Iran access to cash immediately, though the White House calls that "misinformation."Yes, but: The senior administration official said the U.S. was prepared to make some "small gestures" early in the process on frozen funds and sanctions relief if Iran made similar "gestures" reflecting their willingness to comply with the deal.4. Do they agree about what's been agreed?The U.S.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) called on the Trump administration Monday to brief Congress immediately on the “understanding” with Iran that President Trump says would reopen the Strait of Hormuz but leaves the future of Iran’s nuclear program for later talks. “The American people deserve details and full transparency – what exactly is in…
Washington Examiner White House reporter Christian Datoc described the various political, military, and diplomatic pressures on President Donald Trump as the United States nears a peace deal with Iran. “Ultimately, President Trump has a mountain to climb, not only because of ending the war itself, but kind of countering growing public dissatisfaction with the way […]