"I wish none of this had happened": GOP's buyer's remorse on redistricting

Buyer's remorse is hitting House Republicans over their mid-cycle redistricting war — a strategy meant to protect their majority that's now deeply in danger of backfiring.Why it matters: What began as an effort to create more GOP-controlled seats — and avoid a Democratic takeover that would weaken President Trump — now could be a wash, or even add to Democrats' edge.At Trump's request, Republicans kicked off the unusual mid-decade redistricting push in Texas. But that effort triggered counter-moves in Democrat-led California and Virginia, where voters on Tuesday approved a new map that could leave the GOP with just one seat, down from five."It's not for me to say ... because really, it wasn't my decision," NRCC chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who's tasked with protecting the GOP's House majority, told Axios when asked if the strategy was worth it.Others were more blunt."I wish none of this had happened," said California Rep. Kevin Kiley, a former Republican who became an independent last month but still caucuses with the GOP.The big picture: Republicans privately have expressed skepticism about the aggressive redistricting strategy for months amid increasing pressure from Trump, who's said he fears a Democrat-led House would hand him his third impeachment. But now, some lawmakers are publicly saying the blowback may outweigh the gains."I think it is a mistake in hindsight," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Axios, "They thought they could just do Texas and nobody else is gonna respond?""We started a war, and you've got to play chess, think three or four moves ahead," he added."I don't think it's favorable for anybody in America, redistricting," Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said. "It's a race to the bottom."Kiley, whose district became significantly bluer under California's new maps, said: "I wish that cooler heads had prevailed, and we'd be able to reach some sort of truce on this before it snowballed into what it's become."Kiley has been sounding the alarm for months on the dangers of mid-cycle redistricting, and pleaded with his colleagues to take up legislation to ban it. "This has created a lot of needless chaos," he said, but "maybe there's a chance to come together and say, 'Enough is enough.' "Reality check: Republicans are hoping that Virginia's Supreme Court will invalidate Tuesday's vote. But overturning a constitutional amendment that's just been ratified by voters won't be easy.On Wednesday, a lower state court judge threw out Tuesday's election results. But that Republican-appointed judge previously had been overruled by the state Supreme Court, and Virginia's attorney general quickly appealed to the high court again on Wednesday. Neither party is guaranteed to win the seats these new maps put in play across seven states.In an election expected to test voters' attitudes about Trump's handling of the economy, the Iran war and other issues, voters' views on the redistricting derby also could be a factor. What's next: All eyes will be on Florida, where state lawmakers could draw a new map to give Republicans up to five seats. Not all Florida Republicans are on board, however."I feel very confident that we could draw two new districts ... three, if we're feeling particularly froggy," Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) said. "I do have some concerns about five," as some have proposed.Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) has been warning about slipping GOP support among Latinos — a concern being echoed among some Republicans in Texas.Texas' new map partly relies on Latinos turning out for Republicans as enthusiastically as they did in 2024, and any redrawing of Florida's could as well."I like my lines," Salazar said when asked if she supports the redistricting push in Florida. "I can't control this at all," Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) told Axios. "Some people have expressed concerns that if you attempt to draw five, you could draw up a lot of [GOP] seats that might become vulnerable. These are the realities of when you draw lines."Zoom out: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Axios he wasn't concerned about a new Florida map backfiring, adding that he supports Florida moving forward with redistricting.House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) shot back: "Trump and Republicans launched this gerrymandering war, and we've made clear as Democrats that we're going to finish it."