Dems' Virginia gamble pays off in redistricting wars

Virginia voters' narrow approval Tuesday of a plan to redraw the state's congressional map has swung the nationwide redistricting fight that President Trump provoked in Democrats' favor — for now, at least. Why it matters: Democrats gambled on an aggressive reworking of the map in a purple state — and won. Four Republican incumbents in Congress now face the prospect of running in Democrat-friendly districts designed to retire them this November.Virginia's congressional delegation is expected to shift from a 6–5 Democratic edge to roughly 10–1, in a state Trump lost by less than 6 points in the 2024 election. Republicans are vowing to appeal to the Virginia Supreme Court, which in February allowed Tuesday's referendum to proceed without ruling on its legality.The GOP may have one more chance to regain ground in the redistricting spat that Trump began by persuading Texas lawmakers to gerrymander five additional seats for Republicans. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis is considering new maps that could net Republicans an additional two to five seats.What they're saying: Democrats in Virginia and D.C. expressed relief, but they're preparing for the next front."This war is not over. Next week, Ron DeSantis is hauling the Florida legislature back into a special session to redraw maps because Republicans know they are on the verge of an epic defeat in November," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said."Virginia voters have spoken, and tonight they approved a temporary measure to push back against a president who claims he is 'entitled' to more Republican seats in Congress," Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger said in a statement."We responded the right way — at the ballot box," added Spanberger, who won her election by 15 points six months ago but has seen her approval ratings fall during the redistricting fight.The other side: "Virginia Democrats can't redraw reality," said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. "This close margin reinforces that Virginia is a purple state that shouldn't be represented by a severe partisan gerrymander."Zoom out: Republicans' own gerrymandering gambit could face some unexpected challenges.Some Republicans privately worry the Texas map they redrew may yield only two or three new seats, rather than five.One alarming sign: Trump's approval numbers have tanked since Texas' map was redrawn, and polls suggest that Republicans' 2024 gains among Latino voters have evaporated.Trump's move in Texas triggered a series of counterpunches by Democrats.California Gov. Gavin Newsom responded with his own redraw that's projected to net up to Democrats five seats, effectively offsetting the GOP's Texas strategy.Republicans targeted additional gains: +2 seats in Ohio, and +1 each in North Carolina and Missouri.A court-ordered redraw in Utah created one more likely Democratic seat.In Indiana, the GOP-led legislature resisted pressure from the White House to redraw its map to favor Republicans.Zoom in: Many Democrats cast the Virginia gerrymander as fighting Republicans' fire with fire.But the slim margin in Virginia's vote Tuesday — 3 points — fueled a debate among Democrats about the cost of adopting the GOP's aggressive redistricting tactics that Democrats had called undemocratic and unfair.The race, which saw nearly $100 million in spending, also took a toll on Spanberger's approval ratings."It's not redistricting bringing her numbers down," Democratic Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas posted on X. "... The problem she has to correct is that her policies don't match her campaign rhetoric. Her issue is credibility.""If you play to the (liberal) base and ignore moderates and swing voters, it can work in blue states," said Rahm Emanuel, a former U.S. ambassador to Japan and a potential candidate in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. "But in purple states, it creates a wedge."The bottom line: Virginia Democrats gambled on building a wall to make it harder for Trump to tip the scales in House Republicans' favor this November — and they pulled it off. "Virginia stared down Trump and didn't blink," said former Gov. Terry McAuliffe. "He may get away with cheating in golf and on his taxes, but here in Virginia we crushed his midterm cheating scheme that he started in Texas."