Ken Paxton battered by ominous new Senate poll

WASHINGTON — The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.Since Paxton locked up the GOP nomination in late May, polling of the contest has found a neck-and-neck race with neither candidate able to break 50%. But TPOR’s poll found Talarico leading among voters who do not have a college degree — a group that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and across the country — and dominating among independents, less than a quarter of whom said they planned to vote for Paxton. The attorney general also had weaker Republican support than in other recent surveys, with nearly one in five GOP voters saying they were undecided or would vote for Talarico.TPOR labels itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research group. It is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.The group surveyed 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and July 17, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Of those poll respondents, 53% voted for Donald Trump and 42% voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, making the sample only slightly bluer than the 2024 electorate, which favored Trump by a 14-point margin in Texas. Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points in 2020, two years after the last midterm held during his presidency.TPOR’s previous poll, fielded just after the May 26 runoff in which Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn, found Talarico leading 47% to 44%.Texas’ U.S. Senate race figures to be one of the most closely watched and expensive contests in the nation. Democrats have not won a statewide race in the Lone Star State in over 30 years, but they believe a combination of Trump’s lagging approval ratings, Paxton’s ethical baggage and Talarico’s fundraising and populist messaging could deliver the victory that has eluded them for decades.Republicans are taking the threat of Talarico seriously but nevertheless believe that, as the bitter primary between Paxton and Cornyn fades from memory and they highlight Talarico’s progressive views on social issues, Republicans will coalesce behind the attorney general. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “Lean Republican.”Paxton’s 40% vote share is the lowest he has received in a public poll post-runoff. Other surveys have found Republicans were consolidating behind him. But the TPOR poll had Talarico winning 7% of self-described Republicans, and an additional 12% remained undecided. Meanwhile, only 1% of self-identified Democrats indicated they would vote for Paxton, and 6% were undecided.For comparison, a New York Times/Siena poll of the Texas contest fielded in June, which found the overall result tied at 47%, found Talarico winning 5% of Republicans and only 4% unsure.Perhaps the biggest outlier was Talarico’s lead among non-college-educated voters, who favored the Democrat by nine percentage points — 45% to 36%. He led by 1 percentage point among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.In recent elections, education has been one of the most reliable predictors of how people vote, with a sharp partisan dividing line between those with and without degrees. Exit polling found that Republican Sen. Ted Cruz beat Democrat Colin Allred by 18 percentage points among non-college-educated Texans in 2024. Even in 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rouke came within 3 percentage points of victory, Cruz still won that bloc by a 6-point margin, exit polls found.In the New York Times/Siena poll, Paxton had an 8-point lead among voters without a degree, and in TPOR’s own poll in May, Paxton led by a whopping 21 points among that group.Other results hewed closer to recent polling of the race. The TPOR poll found Talarico leading heavily among Black and Latino voters, while Paxton maintained a strong lead with white voters. Black voters broke 71% for Talarico and 8% for Paxton, while Latinos preferred Talarico by a 66% to 20% margin.Paxton led among white voters, 53% to 33%.Talarico’s polling lead owes to his strength with independents and non-college educated voters. The poll found Talarico garnering 43% of independents to Paxton’s 23%; 29% remain undecided. Among self-described moderates, Talarico’s lead is even more pronounced, with the Democrat ahead 54% to 20%.The poll found that 14% of voters of all political stripes remain unsure about their pick. Among undecided voters, there is evidence Paxton has more room to grow: 19% of that bloc said they leaned toward the Republican, compared to 10% who leaned toward Talarico. Two-thirds reported being truly on the fence.Some conservatives have cast doubt on the validity of TPOR's polling given its Democratic ties. Warford is also a founding partner of Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a political action committee dedicated to building Democratic campaign infrastructure in Texas.

Ex-DHS insider delivers bleak prediction as job Blanche chasing 'likely to destroy him'

Todd Blanche was warned by a former insider to be careful what he wishes for as he prepares to face a Senate confirmation vote.The acting attorney general is poised to become the most powerful lawyer on earth as the head of President Donald Trump's weaponized Department of Justice, wrote former Homeland Security staffer Miles Taylor for The i Paper, who served some cautionary advice about what to expect."If he loses, it will be a historic failure," Taylor wrote. "But if he wins, the job he’s fighting for is likely to destroy him. And the world will see how far Trump will go if he is unrestrained."His tenure has already drawn scrutiny over the stalled Jeffrey Epstein investigation, which critics say was suspended under circumstances that shielded Trump and his allies. Blanche personally interviewed Ghislaine Maxwell before her transfer to more comfortable custody, oversaw a chaotic release of Epstein files that exposed survivors' identities while redacting alleged abusers' names, and is now facing a federal judge's order to hand over unredacted documents directly — a sign the court no longer trusts DOJ's representations."Blanche set fire to his reputation when he agreed to be Trump’s personal criminal defense attorney," Taylor wrote. "He was the man at the defence table in Manhattan when Trump became the first American president convicted of a felony. But this week is the ultimate showcase of how he might debase himself in an effort to protect his employer."During confirmation proceedings, Blanche submitted over 400 pages of written answers, more than 160 of which declined to respond on grounds it would be "inappropriate." He would not commit in writing to rejecting future slush funds for Trump allies or sweetheart deals for the president — a refusal two Republican holdouts have specifically flagged as disqualifying. More than 1,200 former Justice Department officials across administrations signed a letter opposing his confirmation, citing a "culture of fear" and constitutional failures, dwarfing the fewer than 80 signatures backing him."I worked with both of Trump’s former attorneys general, Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr, and their teams during the first Trump administration, when I served as chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security," Taylor wrote. "Whatever criticisms people had of those men — and I had plenty — they generally pushed back on Trump’s anti-constitutional conduct."Taylor described White House meetings where Trump ranted at length about settling scores with his enemies, money laundering and other illegal schemes, but he expressed doubt that Blanche would react as his predecessors had."After those meetings, these men would go back to their departments," Taylor wrote. "They’d confer with their teams. And after weighing Trump’s more egregious schemes, they’d conclude that it wasn’t worth going to prison for him."Taylor warned that Blanche would become legally accountable for implementing Trump's most extreme future actions, with no institutional check left between the president and the machinery of government as there had been during his first term."It’s the highest-risk job on earth. And for what?" Taylor wrote. "Trump discards lawyers the way he discards wives and creditors. Michael Cohen went to prison for him. Rudy Giuliani was disbarred and bankrupted for him. His former chief lawyers, Sessions and Barr, looked at the train wreck and walked away while they still could."

Ex-Trump official unveils plans to ambush Todd Blanche's confirmation hearing

Miles Taylor, a former Homeland Security official, plans to make a "closing argument" against Todd Blanche's confirmation Wednesday – a day before the hearing – by parking a van dubbed the "Trump-Epstein Bookmobile" outside the Capitol alongside "nearly a dozen" survivors of Jeffrey Epstein.Revealed Tuesday by Taylor, who served in the first Trump administration, the plan will see a van “built to carry all 3.5 million pages of the Epstein files” park just outside the U.S. Capitol Wednesday morning. Epstein survivors and members of Congress will speak during the event about, among other things, “holding the Epstein-Trump enablers accountable,” Taylor wrote in a report on his Substack.“This week, Trump is trying to get his ‘yes man,’ Todd Blanche, approved by the Senate as America’s top lawyer. That’s why we’re rolling the truck out when we are, where we are,” Taylor wrote. “The press conference will be the ‘closing argument’ against Blanche just outside the chamber where a handful of Republican holdouts are deciding whether or not to find their backbone. But we want to make clear that – no matter how the Senate votes – we are going to demand answers loudly, from now until the midterms and beyond.”Regarding the Justice Department’s release of Epstein-related files, Todd Blanche has drawn bipartisan criticism over missed deadlines, botched redactions exposing victims' identities, and accusations he's protected Trump and Epstein's associates.Following the Wednesday morning press conference, the “Trump-Epstein Bookmobile,” Taylor revealed, is slated for a nationwide tour and will visit “city to city across America,” allowing “anyone who wants to see the record for themselves” to skim through millions of Epstein-related files.“The president keeps trying to distract the public and bury the truth by making files disappear off the internet,” Taylor wrote. “But it’s considerably harder to bury a truck.”The Epstein Files will haunt Trump through the midterms. We're making sure of it. by Miles TaylorA major announcement with Epstein Survivors is planned for this week, on the eve of Todd Blanche's nomination vote to be attorney general. Join us LIVE.Read on Substack

Ex-Trump aide issues chilling warning to new 'chief enabler' Todd Blanche

President Donald Trump's nominee for the attorney general post isn't merely a "yes-man," he's one who is willing to compromise his own profession and reputation to be a "yes-man." At least, that's what former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff Miles Taylor wrote in his column Tuesday. Taylor spent the first Trump administration trying to sound the alarm from inside the White House, writing a column and then a book under the "Anonymous" title. Todd Blanche, who is likely to be confirmed on Thursday for the post, "has already endured humiliation after humiliation in order to protect his boss. Blanche is now poised to become arguably the most powerful lawyer on earth as Trump’s nominee to run the US Department of Justice outright," wrote Taylor. Were Blanche to lose the confirmation, it would be another in a long line of Trump failures. If he wins, Taylor thinks the job will destroy Blanche. "And the world will see how far Trump will go if he is unrestrained," he wrote. Chief among them is Blanche's directing new attention toward the Jeffrey Epstein files. As the senior Justice Department official overseeing the Epstein files, Blanche has been criticized for a botched rollout that exposed survivors’ names and images while keeping many powerful figures redacted. A federal judge this week was unconvinced by the department’s explanations, and has now ordered Blanche to turn over unreleased documents directly to the court.Blanche’s own actions have fueled further controversy after he personally flew to interview convicted trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell, the Epstein co-conspirator. She was transferred to a prison "camp" shortly after their meeting. It is a significantly less restrictive confinementThe confirmation process also highlighted Blanche's evasive testimony. In more than 400 pages of written answers to the Senate Judiciary Committee, Blanche declined to answer over 160 questions as “inappropriate." One included whether he would revive a controversial “anti-weaponization” fund if ordered by the president. Two Republican holdouts are pressing him to commit in writing to no sweetheart deals for Trump, a promise he has so far refused.More than 1,200 former DOJ officials, from both parties, have urged the Senate to reject him, citing a “culture of fear” and questioning his fidelity to the Constitution. Supporters mustered fewer than 80 names in response.Blanche, Taylor argues, has become Trump’s personal criminal defense lawyer and was standing beside him when he became the first U.S. president convicted of a felony. Now, as he nears the nation’s top law enforcement post, critics warn he may serve as a legal shield for an administration already facing an unprecedented judicial paper trail. The question for Blanche is not just whether he will be confirmed, but who will stand beside him when the consequences of his choices come due.Taylor couldn't help but remember those who came before Blanche like former lawyer Michael Cohen, who went to prison for Trump and Rudy Giuliani who was disbarred and bankrupted after working for the president."Todd Blanche stood beside Donald Trump as a defense lawyer. He’s hoping to be rewarded for that loyalty," Taylor said of Trump. "The question that should keep him up at night is simpler than any a senator has asked: When the reckoning comes — for everything he’ll be asked to do on Trump’s behalf — who will stand beside Todd Blanche?" Taylor closed asking.

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