Last week in the Kentucky GOP primary, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) was beaten by MAGA-certified challenger Ed Gallrein in a race that many say re-verified President Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican party, proving once again that his endorsement can make or break candidates depending on their loyalty to him personally. Now Massie — who has drawn Trump’s ire over the course of the past 18 months for his willingness to break with the White House agenda — has filed to run in 2028 for the House seat he just lost, adding new significance to the election that will also choose a new president.In the runup to Massie’s defeat last week, the Kentucky race swelled to become the most expensive primary in history. Trump and his political allies flooded the election with money after the Representative voted against a handful of Trump policies, pushed for the release of the Epstein files, and opposed the war with Iran. The race caused fractures not only throughout the Republican party but within diehard MAGA circles, with former Trump allies like Tucker Carlson and ex-Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene backing Massie, and the Administration along with powerful pro-Israel lobbies coordinating efforts to oppose him. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth raised eyebrows by stumping for Gallrein in the final days of the race, breaking Pentagon neutrality norms. And Representative Lauren Boebert attempted to voice support for both Massie and Trump, prompting a predictable attack from the latter, who immediately suggested she be primaried.The president has frequently used his primary endorsement as a cudgel for keeping Republicans in line, and has proven that he still has a grip on the party, with his candidates consistently beating targeted incumbents on both state and national levels. But many warn that Trump’s short-term wins could mean defeat for the Republicans in the November general election. While the president’s endorsement may be effective within the GOP, that is likely no longer the case in a broader election where candidates depend on independent swing voters. Trump’s approval among swing voters has plunged to historic lows over issues like the war with Iran, the spiraling economy, and many other factors. As a result, voters have expressed an overwhelming desire for Democratic candidates in generic ballots, which has Republicans worried they may lose their majorities in the House and maybe even the Senate. While Massie will leave office at the end of this term, his filing for 2028 suggests he recognizes that while Trump may have power over the party for now, enthusiasm for the president is waning fast.
