Pentagon Report on Hormuz Strait Blows Up Trump Dream of Cheap Gas

It will be a long time before the Strait of Hormuz is back to business as usual.A Pentagon assessment shared with lawmakers Tuesday revealed that it could take six months for the vital oil tradeway to be fully cleared of the mines planted by the Iranian military, according to officials that spoke with The Washington Post.It’s unlikely, however, that any mine-sweeping operation will take place without a peace agreement and an official end to the Iran war—a possibility that could very well drag the current economic woes into the back half of the year or beyond.That could have serious implications for Republicans come November: Most Americans do not approve of the war, with 41 percent of the country in doubt as to whether Donald Trump even has a plan for ending the conflict, according to a Politico survey published last week. The unpopular war has also ripped the MAGA movement right down the middle. Several major far-right media personalities—such as Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones—have outright disavowed the president and his approach to foreign policy since the war began, arguing that Trump backtracked on his former platform and campaign promises. Trump has rebuked his former acolytes in response, directly attacking them on social media and reposting content that demands they “shut the fuck up.”By Wednesday, the majority of the voting public said that the House should impeach Trump, including one in five of his own supporters, according to a poll by Strength in Numbers.But the rejection is not entirely unexpected. The war in Iran has thrust the entire world into an energy crisis, spiking oil and gas prices, stalling trade, and tanking economies. Last month, the cost of Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, reached a high of $108 per barrel—a dramatic increase from before the war started in late February, when Brent crude cost around $65 a barrel. At the time of publication, the cost per barrel was hovering around $101. It is not clear exactly what the war in Iran has accomplished. Trump has previously stated that his primary objective in the war was to erase Iran’s nuclear capabilities—but his administration’s battle assessments have stood in contrast to other attacks they boasted about as recently as last year.Prior to the war—which never obtained congressional approval—Trump ordered strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear sites, hitting Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan on June 22. At the time, the Trump administration claimed that the one-off air raid had set Iran’s program back by “years.”Former director of the National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent sparked a maelstrom in Washington when he resigned over the issue last month. Kent argued in his resignation letter that he could not “in good conscience” support the war in Iran. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” he wrote at the time.In the seven weeks since the war began, the U.S. and Israel have killed thousands of Iranian civilians and obliterated Iranian civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile, 13 U.S. soldiers have died. Trump extended the ceasefire between the two nations Wednesday, promising to hold off on the violence until Tehran was able to offer a formal peace proposal. Shortly afterward, Iran’s top negotiator said that it was “not possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz” due to “blatant violations” of the ceasefire, specifying the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and “warmongering” by Israel “on all fronts.”