Intel experts say Trump's 'final blow' on Iran will just 'dig ourselves even deeper'

Source: Alternet.org · Bias: Left

Summary

Today it was revealed that the Trump Administration is developing a military plan for its “final blow” against Iran, but according to a leading U.S. intelligence analyst, it is a recipe for “FOREVER WAR.”As the war on Iran continues to spiral into its second month, resulting in casualties, damage to vital infrastructure throughout the Gulf region, and global economic turmoil, President Donald Trump is increasingly desperate to end the conflict and alleviate fears over rising gas prices. Now, the Pentagon has determined that a “crushing show of force” may be necessary should peace negotiations fail. Sources say that Trump has been presented with four courses of action should he decide on “dramatic military escalation.” These include the invasion of Iran’s essential oil hub Kharg Island, the invasion of the strategic Strait of Hormuz outpost Larak Island, the invasion of the smaller islands deeper in Hormuz (the control of which has previously been contested between Iran and the UAE), and the seizure of ships exporting Iranian oil. Each of these would likely be bolstered by ground operations that would move deep into Iran. As Axios points out, “the scenarios under discussion would risk prolonging and intensifying the fight rather than bringing it to a dramatic conclusion.”Or as Washington Post foreign policy reporter Josh Rogin put it, “None of these options are a ‘final blow.’ They all look like ways to dig ourselves even deeper into a quagmire.”Analyst Malcolm Nance — a retired Senior Navy Chief with 36 years of experience in U.S. intelligence — was similarly grim in his assessment, posting, “FINAL BLOW? THIS IS FOREVER WAR. There is an insane level of strategic incoherence here. I've sailed off all of these islands in war and this doesn't make sense.”According to Nance, the islands are too close to the Iranian mainland, and to place troops there would mean leaving them in Iranian firing range. “It’s Khe Sahn with water around,” he explained, referencing an infamous battle during the Vietnam War in which American forces were surrounded and besieged for over two months. He also points out that if the U.S. begins seizing ships, then Iran will be motivated to increase its attacks on ships as well. While Nance does admit that the 4-point plan could be an attempt at “strategic misdirection,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested otherwise, saying, “The President doesn't bluff and he is ready to unleash hell.”Nance is not optimistic about the outcome of such actions, declaring, “This silliness could go on for years!”

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Intel experts say Trump's 'final blow' on Iran will just 'dig ourselves even deeper'
Alternet.org

Intel experts say Trump's 'final blow' on Iran will just 'dig ourselves even deeper'

Left

Today it was revealed that the Trump Administration is developing a military plan for its “final blow” against Iran, but according to a leading U.S. intelligence analyst, it is a recipe for “FOREVER WAR.”As the war on Iran continues to spiral into its second month, resulting in casualties, damage to vital infrastructure throughout the Gulf region, and global economic turmoil, President Donald Trump is increasingly desperate to end the conflict and alleviate fears over rising gas prices. Now, the Pentagon has determined that a “crushing show of force” may be necessary should peace negotiations fail. Sources say that Trump has been presented with four courses of action should he decide on “dramatic military escalation.” These include the invasion of Iran’s essential oil hub Kharg Island, the invasion of the strategic Strait of Hormuz outpost Larak Island, the invasion of the smaller islands deeper in Hormuz (the control of which has previously been contested between Iran and the UAE), and the seizure of ships exporting Iranian oil. Each of these would likely be bolstered by ground operations that would move deep into Iran. As Axios points out, “the scenarios under discussion would risk prolonging and intensifying the fight rather than bringing it to a dramatic conclusion.”Or as Washington Post foreign policy reporter Josh Rogin put it, “None of these options are a ‘final blow.’ They all look like ways to dig ourselves even deeper into a quagmire.”Analyst Malcolm Nance — a retired Senior Navy Chief with 36 years of experience in U.S. intelligence — was similarly grim in his assessment, posting, “FINAL BLOW? THIS IS FOREVER WAR. There is an insane level of strategic incoherence here. I've sailed off all of these islands in war and this doesn't make sense.”According to Nance, the islands are too close to the Iranian mainland, and to place troops there would mean leaving them in Iranian firing range. “It’s Khe Sahn with water around,” he explained, referencing an infamous battle during the Vietnam War in which American forces were surrounded and besieged for over two months. He also points out that if the U.S. begins seizing ships, then Iran will be motivated to increase its attacks on ships as well. While Nance does admit that the 4-point plan could be an attempt at “strategic misdirection,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested otherwise, saying, “The President doesn't bluff and he is ready to unleash hell.”Nance is not optimistic about the outcome of such actions, declaring, “This silliness could go on for years!”

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