Graham Platner Is Weakened—But He Can Still Win in November

Graham Platner will kick off starts his first general election at one of the lowest points of his upstart Senate campaign. There has been nonstop coverage, both in Maine and nationally, about racy text messages he sent to women who aren’t his wife, as well as his alleged callous treatment of ex-girlfriends. That drumbeat helped lead to Tuesday’s election results, in which about 20 percent of Maine Democrats essentially gave Platner a no-confidence vote by backing Governor Janet Mills, who had suspended her campaign in late April because Platner had built a substantial lead over her, despite the backing of establishment Democrats in Washington, D.C. Now, journalists are writing articles describing how the Maine Democratic Party could choose a new, scandal-free candidate if Platner can be convinced to drop out by July 13. It’s not an ideal beginning to his battle with incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, who has consistently overperformed in Maine elections. Democrats are nervous about Platner, and they should be. In a must-win Senate race, voters have nominated a high-risk, high-reward candidate—one whose downside seems much clearer than his upside. That said, all is not lost. Platner has a very strong chance of winning this seat. These last few weeks could end up being much ado about little. Why am I optimistic about Platner? First and foremost, all indications are that this is poised to be a very good election year for Democrats overall—the best for the party since 2018. Democrats have done very well since the start of 2025 in special elections for state legislative and congressional seats across the country, as well as the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey. Trump’s approval ratings are terrible. As data analyst G. Elliott Morris wrote earlier this week, this election is shaping up to be one where stalwart Democratic voters turn out at higher levels than their Republican counterparts; new voters favor the Democrats; and more voters swing from Republican to Democrat than vice versa. In this environment, Democratic candidates are the favorites in toss-up states like Michigan and even more so in places that lean slightly Democratic, like Maine. In “wave” elections, as 2026 is likely to be, politicians from the president’s party often lose even if they are, like Collins, well-established figures. If you want to know what Platner’s biggest advantage is, it’s that he is a Democrat running in 2026. And despite the recent headlines, Platner is a strong candidate. Trust me on this: He is. I know that he has a tattoo of a symbol that had been associated with the Nazi police, he’s written juvenile things in Reddit posts, he has at times misstated details of his personal background, and has behaved toward women in such ways that many Maine voters probably would not want him to marry their daughter. At the same time, he has connected deeply with voters in Maine, who have crowded his events around the state. At a time when many Americans hate traditional politicians and crave outsiders, Planter perfectly fills the bill. For a party desperate to connect better with men, gun owners, people who work in blue-collar jobs, and residents of rural areas, Platner potentially appeals to all four blocs.Mills getting 20 percent of Tuesday’s vote after suspending her campaign makes Platner look weak. But the broader story of the primary is that Platner was so thoroughly defeating Mills, the twice-elected governor recruited by the national Democratic Party for this Senate seat, that she stopped running to avoid the embarrassment of a double-digit loss. That’s impressive. Perhaps Collins is essentially unbeatable. She’s successfully won reelection in 2008 and 2020, two other strong years for Democrats. Maybe Mills, given the right circumstances, might have appealed to some middle-aged and elderly women who will now vote for Collins. But it’s entirely possible that Platner expands the electorate by getting people who would never vote for Mills, Collins, or any traditional politician to back him. There is some evidence that Collins’s act of frequently claiming to be “concerned” with Trump but largely voting for his policies is wearing thin in Maine. In 2017, 67 percent of Maine voters approved of Collins, compared to 27 percent who disapproved, according to Morning Consult. But in a Morning Consult survey conducted last year, 41 percent of Maine voters approved of her, while 55 percent disapproved. That’s a massive downward spiral. Other surveys also show that more Maine residents disapprove of Collins more than those that approve of her. At a time when anti-Washington and anti-establishment sentiment is very high, being a 73-year-old who has served in the Senate since 1997 hurts politically. Collins can’t run against the status quo—she is the status quo. And politicians who seem like permanent fixtures in their states often eventually lose.