“This is what happens when you break your promises,” said polling analyst G. Elliot Morris, describing the kind of polls President Donald Trump and the Republican Party is facing as the nation careens into the November midterms.“The big problem for Trump and Republicans is that the president said he would lower prices on day one, and then he went and actively made decisions that produced the opposite outcome — and took credit for them. Basically everything about the current political environment is downstream of these decisions.”Multiple polls reveal 64 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and 69 percent disapprove of how he is managing the cost of living, but Morris said the numbers “that should really cause you to update your beliefs about this year’s midterms” is hiding in polls’ crosstabs.As passionate as some people may feel about elections, politics and Trump it is “the least politically engaged Americans” that are deciding American elections. It may sounds like sacrilege, but it’s true, said Morris. In 2024, according to Pew, non-voters leaned toward Trump over Harris by four percentage points, 44 percent to 40 percent. But today, the Democratic margin among non-voters is a whopping +20 points — a 24-point shift since 2024.“That is the largest pro-Democratic swing in any subgroup of the electorate we measure, and it has been at or above double digits in nine of our eleven monthly polls,” said Morris, confirming that Independents and non-voters have overwhelmingly turned on the president and his Republican Party.Midterm turnout always falls short of presidential years, said Morris, but tens of millions of 2024 non-voters can’t seem to wait to cast a ballot this time — and Morris said Democrats have held an enthusiasm advantage in surveys all year, with nine in ten registered voters admitting they plan to participate in November. And Democratic voters eight points more likely than Republicans to say they "are ‘almost certain’ to turn out,” said Morris.Non-voters decide elections, said Morris, citing 11 months of Strength In Numbers/Verasight polling, which is now confirmed by outside surveys. “They were Trump’s strongest supporters in 2024 — and they have moved against him at roughly twice the rate as everyone else since.”“We are seeing the makings of a ‘wave election’ — or really, at D+11, a tsunami-like midterm backlash,” Morris concluded.