Ken Paxton swamps John Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate runoff after securing Trump endorsement

Paxton’s landslide victory is the latest example of Trump’s unrivaled influence in Republican Party politics. 

The Disappearing Reappearing Iran Deal

Negotiations remain in flux, but we’re a long way from ‘Unconditional Surrender.’

Trump Summons Entire Cabinet as Iran Deal Crumbles in Front of Him

Donald Trump is preparing to meet several key administration officials at Camp David on Wednesday as Iranian peace talks fall apart.The impromptu presidential retreat will include every Cabinet member, including outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, the New York Post reported Tuesday.Inclement weather could alter the plans at the eleventh hour, however. Trump typically flies to the 125-acre Maryland compound via helicopter, but heavy rain battering Washington could challenge his route and ultimately change the meeting location.Trump’s twelfth visit to the Catoctin Mountain park will focus on “recent successes of the administration including economy and small business wins, Task Force to Eliminate Fraud highlights, and foreign policy updates,” a White House official told the Post.The crumbling prospect of peace with Iran, however, is expected to dominate the conversation. The U.S. attacked Iranian boats and missile launch sites late Monday, according to U.S. Central Command, violating the ceasefire mere hours after Iranian officials arrived in Qatar for discussions to end the war. The boats were reportedly attempting to lay more mines along the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway between Iran and Oman. Iranian state media confirmed that some of the attacks hit Bandar Abbas, an Iranian port city that is home to the country’s key naval and air bases. State media reported that explosions occurred in other cities, as well.CENTCOM characterized the strikes in southern Iran as defensive, saying they were intended “to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.”Shortly afterward, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei threatened American military bases in the Middle East, writing in Farsi on his official X account that “America will no longer have a safe haven for mischief and the establishment of military bases in the region.” Khamenei further vowed that the phrases “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” would remain the rallying cry of the Islamic community and “the oppressed of the world, especially the youth.”

The new oil order that could emerge from an Iran deal

With a U.S.-Iran deal (maybe?) taking shape in coming days, the oil market that follows will look different than what preceded the war.Why it matters: The emerging deal — which would re-open the Strait of Hormuz while nuclear talks proceed — could return large amounts of barrels to the market.It's not a moment too soon as global oil stockpiles, which have somewhat tempered the crisis, are drawn down at record pace.Reality check: Things won't be normal for a long time, and the postwar definition of normal is fluid, too.A few near-term and long-term things to watch...😨 Confidence: In the near term, "It's all about whether vessel owners and crews feel safe transiting the Strait of Hormuz," said oil analyst Ben Cahill of UT-Austin.He notes confusion about whether Iran will imposes some kind of fees, safety, insurance rates and more."It could be a stop-and-start process as risk-averse shippers work through these uncertainties," he tells me via email.🕰️ Timelines: "Following the clearance of any mines, a minimum of two to three months will likely be required to re‑establish steady export operations," the International Energy Agency said in its mid-May oil market report.And Persian Gulf countries need time to resume production that declined after the main export route was cut off.📜 Definitions: What "open" means for the world's most important energy shipping lane is unsettled.Iran may not call it a toll, but Iranian officials are floating new fees on tankers.This could be a boon to Iran even if the fee is relatively small, said Edward Fishman, a former State Department aide now with the Council on Foreign Relations.Fishman — speaking on oil analyst Rory Johnston's essential Oil Ground Up podcast — sees vessels paying tens of billions of dollars per year, even $100 billion."If you look at it from the perspective of market participants, whether it's oil traders or shippers, even if you're paying $2 million a pop for a VLCC [Very Large Crude Carrier], that's $1 a barrel, that's actually not that economically significant," he said."I think that the private sector, if this is the cost of getting ships through the Strait, is going to pay the toll," he said.⚠️ Vibes and market risk: Before the crisis that throttled supplies, there was debate in oil circles about whether markets were blasé about threats to infrastructure or shipping.Even once the current crisis is in the rearview, watch the level of "geopolitical risk premium" — the market's willingness to preemptively price in risk — that elevates prices.It could be higher now, especially with Iran's newly assertive posture in the Strait."There will be a permanent price premium attached to a permanently more risky operating environment," Clayton Seigle, an oil analyst withe Center for Strategic and International Studies, said via email.🚧 Pipeline infrastructure: There are already efforts to at least somewhat ease the Strait's importance by building pipelines to bypass it.The United Arab Emirates said in mid-May that it's speeding construction of a major pipeline that will double its export capacity through the port of Fujairah. CNBC has more.🇺🇸 U.S. oil production: Higher prices are likely to encourage producers to boost their output as they see opportunities from a market that went from soft to tight.Before the war, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected domestic production dipping from 13.6 million barrels per day this year to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027.Its latest outlook, in mid-May, now sees production rising to 14.1 million next year.Publicly listed U.S. shale producers have increased 2026 capital spending plans by $490 million compared to pre-war guidance, the energy research and consulting firm Enverus tells the FT.

What to Know About the Abraham Accords as Trump Pushes Mideast Nations to Recognize Israel as Part of Iran Deal

Trump said he would be “mandatorily requesting” several Muslim nations sign the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel as part of any peace deal with Iran.

Steve Kornacki previews the Texas GOP primary runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn

President Trump's endorsement of Texas attorney general Ken Paxton will put the president's influence to the test against incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn. NBC News' Steve Kornacki and Houston Chronicle's Jeremy Wallace break down the polls.

Memorial Day

Trump Provides Update on Iran Deal and Options For Disposal of Their Enriched Uranium

President Trump on Monday provided an update on the US's deal with Iran and options for disposal of their enriched uranium. The post Trump Provides Update on Iran Deal and Options For Disposal of Their Enriched Uranium appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

The Disappearing Reappearing Iran Deal

Negotiations remain in flux, but we’re a long way from ‘Unconditional Surrender.’